Marriage equality advocates have sent all Labor Party National Conference delegates a list of electorates where the party would pick up tens of thousands of votes by voting in support of marriage equality on Saturday.

The list is based on Galaxy Research polling from October which shows a swing of up to 7.3 percent – the equivalent of over 1.1 million votes – to Labor if it supports marriage equality, including many existing Green voters.

The list is in response to a letter sent to delegates by the Australian Christian Lobby which claims Labor will lose votes in key marginal seats if it supports same-sex marriage.

Australian Marriage Equality national convener Alex Greenwich described the ACL figures as “shonky”.

“The ACL has calculated how many people signed its petition from marginal Labor-held seats and then claimed this means these key seats are threatened, but it failed to indicate which way the people signing its petition will vote,” he said.

“It’s fair to assume most people who sign Christian lobby petitions have no intention of ever voting Labor no matter what its stance on marriage equality may be.”

Greenwich said the Galaxy-based figures provide a far more reliable measure of the electoral impact of Labor support for marriage equality.

“We know for a fact that Labor will pick up Green voters, particularly young ones, if it supports marriage equality,” he said.

“When we look at the swing electorate-by-electorate we see that labor can expect to tighten its hold on a large number of seats, and potentially win seats like Melbourne, Wentworth and Adelaide.

“Marriage equality is clearly an electoral winner for Labor.”

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