Federal Election still too close to call

Federal Election still too close to call

With a number of seats still to be decided it is unclear whether Labor or the Liberals will be able to form government with the help of independents in what looks certain to be a hung parliament.

To form Government one of the major parties must win the support of enough Greens and independents to make up 76 seats.

The Greens new Member for Melbourne, Adam Bandt will most likely support Labor forming government.

Of the three rural independents, Bob Katter has usually voted with the Coalition and is the least likely to support Labor getting a second term.

In the last parliament independent Rob Oakeshott mostly sided with the Government, while fellow independent Tony Windsor voted more evenly- but still more with the Government than with the Coalition.

In Labor’s favour is Windsor and Oakeshott’s expressed preference for the ALP’s National Broadband Network, and Windsor is on the record agreeing with the Greens on the need for a publicly funded national dental scheme.

All three will be trying to win concessions for regional Australia from the major parties.

In addition to the three rural independents, Tasmanian independent and former Green, Andrew Wilkie, looks set to take the seat of Dennison.

While Wilkie and the Greens had a political falling out following the 2007 Federal Election, he remains largely supportive of their social agenda (including being a vocal advocate of marriage equality) and they may well be able to mend their bridges in the Parliament.

Although unlikely to effect who forms government there is still an outside chance of a second Greens MP being elected in Grayndler, where a recount will be held after former Marrickville Mayor Sam Byrne came within striking distance of ousting Labor’s Anthony Albanese.

It was a good election for parliamentary GLBTI rights allies, with Tanya Plibersek returned on the Labor side in Sydney despite a swing to the Greens, and Liberal Malcolm Turnbull being easily returned in Wentworth.

Most excitingly though, the Coalition’s most outspoken gay rights supporter, far north Queensland Liberal National Party MP Warren Entsch, has won back his seat of Leichhardt after coming out of retirement.

Entsch famously spoke out against his government’s same-sex marriage ban in the Parliament in 2004.

In the Senate, all the Greens dreams have finally come true, with the party gaining an outright balance of power and seeing a near doubling in the number of their senators.

Family First Senator Steve Fielding failed to be re-elected, while the new composition of the Senate will make independent Senator Nick Xenophon’s presence largely irrelevant even though another independent senator may be joining him on the cross benches.

Preference votes in the Senate will take at least a week to sort out but ABC Elections analyst Anthony Green is predicting nine Greens, two independents, 31 ALP, and 34 Coalition senators.

39 votes are required for a bill to pass the Senate.

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9 responses to “Federal Election still too close to call”

  1. On current 2PP figures, over 130,000 more Australians expressed a preference for Labor over the Coalition. Tony Abbott lacks legitimacy.

    Among the many incredulous backflips, bets each way, and double standards he is known for – indeed, seems to flaunt as if some kind of virtue – Abbott now claims that Parliament can be “gentler and kinder”. Yet it was the likes of his aggressive “snivelling grub” routine that has persistently undermined the potential better nature of Parliament for over a decade. Tony Abbott is a wanton deceiver.

    This leopard has not changed his spots. As the self-declared ideological love-child of John Howard and Bronwyn Bishop, he has simply learned well from his political parents. Tony Abbott is a man trying to reinvent himself by asking us to ignore or forget his history.

    The Nationals have been excluded from negotiations with key Independents in order to avoid the deep and powerful hatred between them from compromising Abbott’s grab for power. Add to this that in July 2011, if the lower house composition lasts that long, the Senate will be held in balance by the Greens. Yet Tony Abbott reckons he has greater claim to stable competent government?!

    The Coalition’s weak, technologically illiterate broadband policy is an insipid joke that will hinder the productive growth of the digital economy in Australia and all of the jobs, competition, and services dividends that only a national fibre optic network can deliver well into the future. Tony Abbott has no credible vision for this nation.

    Tony Abbott changes his mind more often than his Speedos. He may be fit for a marathon but he is not fit to be – nor does he deserve the privilege, promotion, or pay rise of being – Prime Minister of Australia.

  2. I’ve blogged before about a commitment from the Greens about their willingness to use the balance of power.

    Now it happens where it really counts – the House of Reps!

    For the record:

    “Will the Greens make it a condition of supporting a minority Government that the ALP allows a conscience vote on same-sex marriage”

  3. I’m thinking

    73 ALP + 1 Green = 74

    73 Lib/Nats + 3 Conservative Independents = 76

    Abbott Minority Govt…But this Govt will get nothing through the senate from July Next year with The Greens having 9 Senators and the balance of Power.

    And the result from this ….another election rather soon.

    p.s. who said Australian Politics is boring …LOL

  4. Independence Day try reading a newspaper (a grown ups one- not the Daily Telegraph)- the three MPs you’re talking about are all ex-Nationals who left the Coalition because they felt they were being screwed over by their own party.

  5. Please Adam Bandt, please make Julia Gillard and Penny Wong agree to eat their words, and agree to do what the majority of Australians think is the right thing to do, which is give us GAY MARRIAGE. Julia tried to pander to the bogun 40% thinking we would not vote against her and that they would vote for her….wrong on both accounts.

    I am in Grayndler and like a lot of my friends who have moved here, voted Greens, because of Gillard and Wong (who really annoyed us). Hope they learned a lesson.

    Are you listening Albanese ? I think maybe you will start.

  6. It is fantastic to see the Greens having a say. Same-Sex marriage and an end to discrimination in all areas is really important. I was also pleased to see them want medicare to cover dental care, along with many good policies for the environment. They will effect Labor by moving them away from the Extreme Right, and perhaps Labor can then earn our vote with good policy.

    The Greens spoke about policies when they were elected, and before the election. I did not hear Liberal or Labor speak about our rights, only Gillard saying we have to respect God, her God of hate and intolerance.

    If we can get proportional representation,then we will see a real change in the political landscape with better representations of our community. If we had this the Greens would of got many more lower house seats.

    Labor and Liberal have become monotone in the absents of a variety of views that really represents the electorate.

  7. Family First got no love on Saturday night, to me the only highlight of the entire event. Australians have wised up to their hatred and they will fade into oblivion just like One Nation…

  8. I understand that the ALP is so desperate to get Rob Oakeshott that they have offered him a ministry position, It really comes down to where Rob Oakeshott stands if we end up with Abbott or not.

  9. Independents have been betrayed by Labour in the past and know they cannot trust Labour. Julia would do a backflip and stab them in the back whereas the Liberal/Nationals are fairdinkum so the coalition would form a majority government where the Independents would obtain the best deal for their constituents and Australia. So far the only policy put forward by the Greens is same sex marriage and that appears all they are interested in and care about.