Fundies in the balance after election?

Claims and counterclaims have been made about the likely shape of the Legislative Council after the NSW state election, with both the Greens and Family First warning that the other side of politics will hold the balance of power.

Family First NSW leader Dr Gordon Moyes has claimed to have been shown secret polling by a “trusted insider” that he believed to be “more accurate than those published in the newspapers”.

“The polls alarm Christians who understand the consequences,” Moyes wrote in a newsletter sent in late January.

“In the Upper House … the picture is not so good for the Coalition parties. With only half the 42 members having to stand each election, the Labor Party is already in a good position with remaining members.

“Labor will lose one seat to the Greens Party which will then have five members. That means that Labor will have 18 seats, the Greens will have five, the Coalition at best will have 15, the Shooters and Fishers Party will have two and Christian Democratic Party [CDP] and Family First Party will have two seats.

“Even if the Coalition has the support of Shooters and CDP … that’s only 19. Hence the Greens Party will hold the balance of power.”

Moyes wrote that it was “imperative” for Family First and the CDP to do a preference deal to get an additional CDP or Family First member elected, and for the Coalition to elect an additional member.

“I will be proposing that Family First assign its preferences to the CDP,” he wrote.

Moyes warned the Greens had “strong policies about ending religious education in public schools, ending public funding for Christian schools, empowering gay marriage, ending Christian prayers in Parliament, ending the right of church offices, schools and retirement villages to employ only people demonstrating Christian beliefs and lifestyle, [and] ending rate exemptions for church-related property”.

However, internal polling analysis by the Greens seen by the Star Observer paints a much grimmer scenario.

The analysis, conducted before the last Newspoll which showed the Greens riding high on 15 percent but Labor on just 24 percent, anticipates Labor and the Greens having just 20 votes between them in the new Legislative Council — not enough to block legislation, with the balance of power going to the CDP and Shooters and Fishers, and Moyes failing to retain his seat.

The Greens believe that with the last Newspoll result that picture will be even grimmer, with the analyst writing that “two CDP members and two Shooters is almost certain, even across a wide variety of LC results”.